- March 6, 2023
- Posted by: Tradingshot Articles
- Category: Stock Indices
Last week we have made clear our short/ medium-term view on the S&P500 (SPX), calling a buy on the exact bottom of the Channel Up:
It is time to look again, as we normally do on a monthly basis, on the bigger picture, looking at the 2D time-frame. The Channel Up is clear and so is the Resistance on the 2D MA200 (orange trend-line) which formed the previous High in February. The rebound was achieved exactly on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The long-term pattern that stands out is the huge Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) whose head was the bottom of the Bear Cycle, which after breaking its Lower Highs trend-line completed the Right Shoulder. Technically this suggests that the price should now begin its rise to its usual target. That is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level and is exactly on the $4700 mark.
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the Top-Bottom of the Bear Cycle have so far matched Support and Resistance levels with high accuracy, so keep those in mind for the next immediate High, e.g. on the 0.618 Fib at 4315, which is also almost the August 15 2022 High.
The STOCH RSI is just coming off a Bullish Cross, indicating that we are just at the start of a new rally.