WTI OIL Limited upside, significant downside

It is time to update our WTI Oil (USOIL) thesis, which was bullish last week as the Resistance within the Channel Up broke:

This time we see one last rise as a possibility since the price is rebounding on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but limited to the 83.40 Resistance. An exception can be made to an overextension to the 85.00 – 86.00 range on the red zone, which is the top (Lower Highs) limit of the 5-month Channel Down (dashed lines).

On that point or if the price breaks below the 4H MA50 first, we expect a strong drop, with the downside open to at least the 70.10 Support. A more likely scenario in our opinion.

Tradingview link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/jiSdxHF3-WTI-OIL-Limited-upside-significant-downside