BITCOIN If this level holds, expect 50k on the next rally.


This is an interesting finding on the 1W time-frame, showing Bitcoin (BTCUSD) within a Channel Up since December 2017 High (of the previous Cycle). Below we analyze frame by frame the similarities and differences, key pressure levels and how those can make a projection for the following months.

** Triangle.. then flush **
A key component of this is the pattern that preceded the FTX crash. As you see that was a Triangle (blue), with the FTX crash displayed by the strong 1W red candle that followed. Before that crash, the price was effectively supported on the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The very same Triangle was seen on the 2018 Bear Cycle, up until the week of November 12 2018. Two strong 1W red candles followed, which after a rather flat green, gave way to another two red weeks that priced the bottom. Notice that during both Triangles, the 1W LMACD flattened.

So far following the FTX candle, we’ve had another (flat) red and this week (so far) a green one. Relative to the 2018 fractal, the price should be proportionately positioned where the red circle is. This implicates that after the green 1W candle, another two red ones should follow and the bottom will be in.

How far those final red candles can go is anyone’s guess but if they follow the (not so strong compared to 2018) FTX candle or even more so the flat 2nd red week that followed, then they could be rather limited in extent. This however goes in contrast to the total correction of the 2018 Bear Cycle, which was approximately -84%. A repeat of that magnitude would put BTC below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of this long-term Channel Up, but the same took place on the week of March 09 2020, with the COVID flash crash, which broke the Channel’s bottom rapidly on a wick and then rebounded almost instantly.

** The 1st Support – 1st Resistance pattern **
Another important aspect of this Channel is where the price had its 1st Support after the Top was made and the Bear Cycle started and where it found its 1st Resistance after the bottom and the start of the new Bull Cycle.

In early 2018, BTC had the 0.5 Fibonacci level as the 1st Support level that contained the downfall before the eventual sell-off to the Triangle. In 2021/22, that 1st Support level was on the 0.618 Fib. In 2019 the 1st Resistance level that put a stop to the first rally on the new Bull Cycle was again Fib 0.5, displaying a perfect symmetry. If the same pattern is continued, then the initial rally that will follow in the new Bull Cycle, should stop on the 0.618 Fib, i.e. slightly above $50000.

For a more effective comparison, we have plotted the 2019/20 sequence (black trend-line) on today’s price action onwards. Not surprisingly, it is rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a little over $50k. That is of course, assuming that the next two weekly (1W) candles will be not as aggressive as in late 2018. If they are and the bottom of the Channel is hit, we can expect a bottom within $13000 – 12000.

Do you think we are very close to pricing the bottom and if so, is this model correct to predict 50k on the next rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!

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