EURUSD Near the 1W MA50. Huge rally if broken.


The EURUSD pair is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since the week of June 14 2021. This is a simple analysis on the 1W time-frame, showing the price action of the pair since 2006. As you see the pair’s major long-term rallies have started after it broke above the 1W MA50, especially when the 1W RSI made such a strong jump, following multi-year downtrends.

As you see, the 1W RSI has gone from 26.00 to 55.00 in less than two months, representing the strongest rise on such short time-frame since March 2015. Though a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 doesn’t necessarily guarantee a huge rally, as with the (very rare) examples of February 2016 and the once in 100 years event of COVID March 2020, it does indicate that the market has bottomed.

A standard first target in 1W MA50 rallies is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and above that, any uptrend has been limited by the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) that started on the November 23 2009 candle.

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