WTI OIL Sell Signal and invalidation level


Following our break-out buy signal last week, the WTI Oil (USOIL) has entered a Resistance Zone, which since the start of August has rejected the price every time with the temporary exception of 1 day (29-30 Aug):

WTI OIL Bullish break-out on the short-term

Eventually the Channel Down turned out to be wider. The price is now pulling back since hitting the August Resistance Zone and the 4H RSI has been emphatically rejected much lower than we’d normally expect. This shows how overbought the price was during that 2 week bullish stretch. Despite the imminent formation of a Bullish Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200), it is best to wait for a confirmed break-out before entering again.

In our opinion a sell break-out will be when the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line breaks, which will be a breach of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well, targeting the September Low.

A buy break-out won’t be above the Resistance Zone or the top of the Channel Down but above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which has been untouched since July 05 2022, in which case we can target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

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