EURUSD Hit the 4H MA200 after 21 days. Rejection or break-out?

The EURUSD pair largely confirmed our Buy Signal given on our last week analysis at the bottom of the multi-month Channel Down:

The price turned sideways after breaking above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday, turning it now into a Support and hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 13. As you see, within the Bearish Megaphone that dictates the trend since the August 10 High, every time the price entered the 4H MA200 – 1D MA50 (red trend-line) Zone, a top was formed shortly after. There is also a clear RSI Resistance (56.60) on the 1D time-frame indicating that.

As a result, you can consider shorting within that Zone and target the 4H MA50 initially. However, if the RSI breaks above or of course the price above the Megaphone, take a neutral stance. That would still not be a bullish break-out as on the long-term we need to see the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) break in order to call for a buy extension.

Keep in mind that high volatility is justified as the market is entering into anticipation mode over Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

Tradingview link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/Gp3SxUt4-EURUSD-Hit-the-4H-MA200-after-21-days-Rejection-or-break-out