- September 28, 2022
- Posted by: Tradingshot Articles
- Category: Commodities
Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down (1) since the March 08 2022 High caused by the Ukraine – Russia war. A distinct characteristic of this pattern is that its Lower Lows completed a -10.50% decline from the previous Lower High.
Today’s low completed another -10.50% decline from the August 10 High and if the pattern continues to replicate this characteristic, then we should see a 3-4 week rise. The previous two rises towards the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down (1) have both hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and reached at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, with the most recent even reaching the 0.618 Fib. On the current sequence, the 0.382 Fib is at 1690, while the 0.618 is at 1734.
If the latter is hit, then that would break the Channel Down (1). We can see however a new Channel Down (2) pattern (green lines) that can match this projection. Notice also the consistent signals that the 1D MACD has been providing since March 14. Every MACD Bearish Cross has been an accurate Sell Signal, while a Bullish Cross has been a Buy Signal. We might have a Bullish Cross within the next 2 days. That would confirm the 3-4 week rise.
Note for long-term traders: A closing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), can change the trend from bearish to bullish long-term.