EURUSD Still neutral. Best to trade the break-outs.


Following our previous EURUSD analysis, the pair is exactly as we left it, neutral within the 0.98650 Support (of the September 06 Low) and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 8-month Channel Down.

The September 12 break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), proved to be a fake-out as the price failed to close above it and on the following day it was rejected back to the top of the July Support Zone. This leaves our trading plan in place intact as we are still waiting for a break either above the Channel or below 0.98650 to trade. We still have to mentioned, that it is the first time, this year at least, that the MACD is trading upwards on a Bullish Cross following a 1D MA50 rejection and this has to favor the bullish scenario, at least on the medium-term.

So with a closing below the 0.98650 Support, we will take a break-out sell targeting the -1.0 Fibonacci extension at 0.96390. For the bullish trade we will ideally wait for a clear break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been intact as a Resistance since February 11. A break above that line, would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

Keep also an eye on the 1D RSI. A break above the 59.30 Resistance would be a sign of a trend change on the medium-term.

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