EURUSD Short-term rebound to 1D MA50 possible ahead of the NFP


The EURUSD pair has entered the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) week scheduled for this Friday with some stabilization bias. It appears that the price is respecting the August 23 Low as the new short-term Support, which along with the July 14 Low being that close, make a solid Zone.

With the 1D RSI rebounding from that Low, the market sentiment ahead of this important data release seems to be somewhat bullish and at least on the short-term, we can expect a test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), just below the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the long-term Channel Down, a pattern that the pair has been trading in since the February 10 High.

Notice that this is the exact short-term rebound that EURUSD did after the June 15 low where it eventually hit the 1D MA50 and got rejected strongly to the new July 14 Lower Low. The 1D MA50 is currently at 1.0200. On the longer-term, we need to see a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which would be the first since February 11, in order to see further buying pressure with an extended target on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Until then, the Channel Down remains valid, with a -0.382 Fibonacci extension being the candidate for the next Lower Low.


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