USDJPY is close to making a long-term top


The USDJPY pair has been on a very aggressive (turned into parabolic) rise since the 2021 Low. It has been above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the whole year. In the past 30 days it broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) but recovered all the losses quickly and is testing the July High.

On this 1W time-frame, the RSI has been on Lower Highs since May 02 and the MACD on a Bearish Cross since July 25. We have seen those formations taking place at the exact same order another 3 times since March 2013.

As you see on the chart, that created at least a Triangle and high volatility that reached (or traded very close to) the 1W MA50. In June 2015, the eventual peak took place a little after those formations, on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. What this shows though that short-term traders can at least sell towards the 1D MA50 and use it as a pivot and long-term traders average sell positions, targeting the 1S MA50.

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