BITCOIN The Ultimate Support Band. 1W MA300 coming into play?


Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. As I’ve mentioned numerous times, that has been the trend-line that marked the bottoms on both previous BTC Bear Cycles (all candles closed above).

On this analysis, I am extending my previous publications on this Support by adding a variety of elements:

1) The 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that got hit, supported the price and initiated the rally on the March 2020 COVID crash.
2) The Mayer MA, which fits perfectly on this Support Zone charting I want to make clear with the MA200 and MA300.
3) Mapping of all previous Cycles
4) The Halvings

** The 1W MA300 **
First, it is critical to acknowledge where the 1W MA300 is. On this INDEX BTC chart, it sits around 16590. That is way below the Top of the previous Bear Cycle (19800), which if broken it will be the first time in history. If the current 1W candle closes considerably below the 1W MA200, a trader should acknowledge that as a possibility. Notice however that this is the top of the Mayer MA Support Band (green zone), which was last hit on the August 17 2015 candle.

** The Halvings can time the Bottoms **
The good news come when we incorporate the Halvings on the chart. As you see, the previous Bear Cycle bottoms have been 882 and 791 days after the previous Halving for the December 2018 and the January 2015 bottoms respectively. Or alternatively 518 and 539 days before the next Halving. Right now that creates a potential Bottom Phase within the July 04 and October 03 2022 1W candles.

** The 1W MA50/MA100 Cross **
On top of that, there is a pattern that when formed, it basically confirms that the Cycle’s Bottom has been priced. That is the 1W MA50/MA100 Cross (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line)). I’ve analyzed that before but it fits very well on the current idea. If the MA50 and MA100 don’t diverge from their current course, the Cross is projected to take place within the Bottom Phase as illustrated by the Halvings.

** Cycle mapping **
Even though the current Cycle has been an odd one, especially when thinking about its top, which not only it didn’t make a blow-off top above the upper Mayer MA Zone (red zone) but also made a slightly higher top in November, it hasn’t diverged much from the previous ones. As you see if we divide the Bear Cycles into phases, they all tend to follow the same pattern:

a) Blue Triangle = Blow-off phase but with price still supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
b) Green Rectangle = Price consolidating, below the 1W MA50 but supported by the 1W MA100.
c) Orange Channel Down = Final sell-off/ price collapsing below the 1W MA100 but finds support and contained above the 1W MA200.

We are currently on Phase C. Whether or not BTC hits the 1W MA300 now or in a later stage of the new Bull Cycle, as it did on both previous Cycles (see red circles), that remains to be seen.

Until then, what’s your view on this complete Cycle mapping? Do you agree that we are in Phase C and if so, do you expect the 1W MA200 to support and close this week above it or make a sharp fall to the 1W MA200 if it fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!


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