XAUUSD Still bearish unless this level breaks


Gold (XAUUSD) has established a Channel Down pattern since its March 08 peak during the Ukraine – Russia war. Since May 16 it has been forming its new leg to a Lower High but three sessions ago it got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), cutting the uptrend from a 1D MA50 test (red trend-line) which is the long-term pivot for Gold between a bullish and a bearish trend.

Being a barometer, it won’t be until Gold breaks the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down, that a sustainable bullish reversal can be achieved. Until then, every such rejection, is a sell opportunity towards roughly 1790, which is the top of the 2021 Support Zone. Notice also that the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 crosses above the 4H MA200) got held up with that 4H MA200 rejection last week and then last time we had such a Golden Cross was on February 11, right at the start of the enormous war rally.

As a result if a new 4H Golden Cross is achieved and the Lower Highs break, be ready to buy the break-out with short-term targets the Fibonacci retracement levels.

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