WTI OIL can go much lower based on this pattern


It was exactly one month ago (October 19) when I reversed my bullish thesis on WTI Crude Oil, calling for a top and a reversal:

WTI OIL is about to top soon. Reversal imminent.

As you see, the top got priced exactly on the March Higher Highs trend-line and the rejection successfully took place. Even early into November, the Lower Highs peak formation was clear:

WTI OIL Bearish Reversal pattern


WTI OIL Break-out or rejection

Back to today. In my firm’s outlook, since the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, the only level that may support Oil is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and that only temporarily. Why? Because this is what happened last time on July 20, a short-term hold there followed by a dead-cat bounce above the 1D MA50 again only to serve as a new rejection towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price eventually made the bottom.

As you see, the major pattern since March is a Bullish Megaphone which besides the Higher Highs, has also a Higher Lows trend-line that Supports. A new contact with that trend-line would be on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which was where the bottom was formed last time on the Higher Lows trend-line in August 20. Corrections of -15% are common within this Megaphone pattern and another such correction would make a low right above the 1D MA200, which I believe will be the bottom and will prevail over a deeper contact on the Higher Lows trend-line.

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