- January 27, 2021
- Posted by: Tradingshot Articles
- Category: Cryptocurrency
Update on today’s price action.
Bitcoin made contact with its MA50 on the 1D time-frame (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 08, 2020 (roughly 110 days). The RSI is also testing its Support Zone which is holding since mid March 2020. Can this be enough to contain this correction from January’s High?
** The 2019 Bull Run **
The answer may be hiding on the 2019 Bull Run, which was the first since the December 2018 market bottom of BTC’s Bear Cycle. During that run, the price touched the 1D MA50 after roughly 150 days on July 19, 2019. It only held for 1 day and then broke below it making a Double Bottom that would only cause a temporary bounce before new lows that would see even the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) break.
** Similarities of 2019 with today **
Notice that both 2019 and today’s Parabolic Rises share a few common characteristics:
– Both rose by approximately +385% from the time they last made contact with their 1D MA50 until their respective peaks.
– Both pulled-back from their peaks by approximately -30% on the low before contact was again made with the 1D MA50.
– At the time of the 1D MA50 test, the RSI was on the Support Zone.
What do all the above mean for BTCUSD now? Probably that if the 1D MA50 doesn’t hold, the price will target the 1D MA100. Practically that would mean the end of the late 2020 Parabolic Run and the beginning of a new accumulation phase. Nothing is set of course, and I have analyzed the importance of the 1D MA100 on previous studies (it has been holding since April 29, 2020).
But what do you think? Will the 1D MA50 save the day for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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