- September 22, 2019
- Posted by: Tradingshot Articles
- Category: Cryptocurrency
As the new Bull Market progresses, Bitcoin has left few questions unanswered. One of those has to do with its historic tendency to touch the 0.17 Fibonacci retracement level before the Halving during its 2nd accumulation phase.
But let’s take this from the beginning. Each BTC cycle is divided into 5 phases:
* After each All Time High (ATH) and market top the price declines rapidly as it enters the Bear Market.
* After forming a bottom, the price starts to consolidate (1st Accumulation phase) as it accumulates buyers on what is a bargain price
* Then we witness the first rise (expansion) as more retail buyers join those who bought at the bottom.
* The price then accumulates again (2nd Accumulation phase) as it is preparing for the Halving.
* Finally the Halving paves the way to the final Strong Bull phase that leads to a new market top.
We are currently on the 2nd Accumulation phase as Bitcoin has been consolidating for nearly 3 months since June’s 13,700 High. This seems to be natural as it is in line with the historic “Pre-Halving” consolidation.
The question that remains is this: Will it fill the 0.17 Fibonacci retracement which is currently near $6000? It might but at the same time, the hyper strong support provided by the historic Parabolic Channel (indicated on the chart by the dashed curve) can issue a bounce before reaching that level. In essence, the longer Bitcoin consolidates above $9000 within its current Triangle, the fewer chances it has to approach $6000 eventually.
What does this mean for us long term investors/ traders? It means that with time such a pull back becomes more unlikely but if it happens it will be the last great bargain price before the new (3rd) Halving initiates the Strong Bull Run into the new market peak, as it will be extremely unlikely that we will ever see those low levels again.
But what do you think? Do you think $9000 will hold and take us sideways towards the Halving or we will get that $6000 bargain buy? Feel free to comment, like and sharing your own chart with me!