The moment cryptotraders have been waiting for is finally here. Only 5 days left for Bitcoin’s Halving No3. We all know the significance of this event and the fundamentals behind it regarding the supply. On this study I will focus on the Halving trend-line (i.e. the line that connects all Halving dates) and how it can reveal the next Peak of the current Market Cycle.<\/p>\n
** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **<\/strong><\/p>\n ** The Halving trend-line **<\/strong> ** The Pre-Halving \/ Post-Halving rallies **<\/strong> – The pre-Halving phase starts from the very first contact that the price makes with the Halving trend-line, near the end of the Bear Cycle. It ends at the Halving date itself. In Cycle 1, BTC rose +488% pre-Halving and +9034% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +1750%. This rise difference post-Halving between Cycles is -50%, meaning that Cycle 2 was half the rise of Cycle 1 pre-Halving.<\/p>\n Assuming each post-Halving rise is -50% of the previous Cycle and since the pre-Halving rise of Cycle 3 is more or less done at +145%, we can calculate the post-Halving rise as follows: ** Timing the Top **<\/strong> Of course this is just one of the many models and projections on the future peak of BTCUSD. Most place the top around $100000, some even go much higher. No matter how sophisticated the models are, they are of course subject to a degree of error. But $70000 is one of the more moderate projections you will see.<\/p>\n So how important do you think the Halving trend-line can be when it comes to estimating the Cycle phases? Do you agree with the $70000 Top?\u00a0Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!<\/strong><\/p>\n Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!<\/p>\n Tradingview ink:<\/p>\n
\nAs I mentioned above above it is the essence of this study and represents the trend-line that connects all Halving dates. This is displayed on the chart by the orange curve. As seen, the price doesn’t diverge much from the Halving trend-line before the Halving takes place on any of the Market Cycles. Only after the Halving do we see Bitcoin aggressively detaching from the Halving trend-line, which of course represents the parabolic run towards a new Cycle High.<\/p>\n
\nI have classified each Cycle into two phases: the pre-Halving and the post-Halving.<\/p>\n
\n– The post-Halving phase starts from the Halving date and ends at the Cycle’s Top (peak). Practically represents the parabolic bull run of the Cycle.<\/p>\n
\nIn Cycle 2, BTC rose +290% pre-Halving and +2816% post-Halving. The rise pre to post-Halving was +870%.<\/p>\n
\npre-Halving rise = -50% of 870% (Cycle 2) = +435%. +435% of 145% is +630%. Price-wise this is marginally north of $70000.<\/p>\n
\nAll previous market peaks (Tops) have been on the outer tiers of the parabolic trend-lines generated by the Halving trend-line. Those are illustrated by the light dashed orange lines. The top of Cycle 1 was almost on Tier 3. The top of Cycle 2 was exactly on Tier 2. We can assume then that the top of Cycle 3 will not exceed Tier 1, which is around February 2022.<\/p>\n