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The EURUSD pair continues to trade sideways around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), keeping all this time the trend within the strict boarders of the long-term Channel Down pattern since the February 10 High.<\/p>\n
As this pattern shows, which I’ve been analyzing on all recent posts, every Lower High is always priced above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level between the prior Lower High and the last Lower Low. That value is now at 1.0367 and should be the short-term target (or break-out target when 4H MA200 breaks).<\/p>\n
After that, the long-term pattern shows that it is best in R\/R terms to go on a tight medium-term sell, targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, which is where all previous Lower Lows where formed. SL tight just outside the Channel Down, so that if we get a 1D candle close above, reverse to buying towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is untouched since February 10.<\/p>\n
Keep in mind that the only trend-line that hasn’t been hit in the past 13 months (since June 17 2021 to be exact), is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and that is the trend-line you want to see break if you want a long-term trend change to bullish.<\/p>\n
Tradingview link:<\/p>\n